You can probably guess who swing-state Fox News viewers are voting for
All Donald Trump wants from Fox News is for it to operate as an explicit arm of his political campaign. Just that. Just no more people who criticize Trump and no Democrats and no anti-Trump ads until Election Day. It’s a simple request, really, and one that would certainly not be too much of a lift for the cable-news channel.
Trump’s complaints are certainly not without justification. After all, in new swing-state polling conducted by The Washington Post in partnership with Schar School, Trump’s support among the Fox News viewership was somewhat south of what the former president might wish, which is something akin to Kim Jong Un’s support among North Koreans.
Our poll included more than 5,000 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. We asked questions both about vote choice — who voters preferred, planned to vote for or had voted for — and media sources. Respondents were asked what they would consider to be a main source for their political news, among a number of options from Fox News to YouTube to friends and family.
About a quarter of those who consider Fox News a main source of news say they are considering voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, with about 1 in 6 saying they either already have or definitely plan to. But 6 in 10 say they will definitely vote for or have already voted for Trump. Another 1 in 10 indicate they plan to.
No other source for news has as wide a pro-Trump margin. While registered voters overall (again, in these seven swing states) are evenly split between the candidates, a number of nontraditional sources for political news also have consumers that lean toward Trump. Those who cite social media or podcasts as a main source of news are more likely to indicate support for Trump, for example, as are those who cite local radio as a main source for news.
On the other side, 6 in 10 of those who say that national newspapers or MSNBC are a main source for news indicate that they will definitely support Harris or have already voted for her. Among those who identify NPR as a main source for political news, the figure is 7 in 10. In each case, about 1 in 10 say they are leaning toward Harris, while less than a quarter say they will or might back Trump.
One key difference, of course, is that Fox News has a much larger audience than MSNBC, NPR or national newspaper readers — by at least a 2-to-1 margin in the swing states.
In fact, across the seven states, there were about two registered voters who didn’t identify Fox News as a main source for political news for every registered voter who did. Among those who didn’t identify Fox as a main source for news, Harris had about a 30-point lead. Among those who did, Trump had about a 50-point lead.
Still: Imagine how frustrating it must be to Trump that a sixth of Fox News viewers in swing states say they plan to vote for Harris. The right-wing media universe has grown more robust in recent years, with more outlets and more voices. But Fox News is still its anchor — and even it hasn’t convinced everyone of the need to back Trump’s candidacy. Sure, some of those viewers are also people who use NPR as a main source of news (albeit presumably not many of them). But maybe the problem, instead, is that Fox News occasionally interviews a Democrat.
One thing is clearly true: Trump has more leverage over Fox than he does over MSNBC.